264. Evidence – The Alchemy of the Ages

What do politi­cians, vot­ers, the cap­tains of indus­try, drug com­pa­nies, priests and door-to-door sales­men all have in com­mon? Not much. How­ever, every one of them has an addic­tion to evi­dence. Not any evi­dence. The evi­dence they crave (and will pay a king’s ran­som for) is evi­dence to sup­port their cause. So what is this mys­te­ri­ous thing called evi­dence? Evi­dence is the magic emerg­ing when A together with B seems to result in C. A and B are then called “premises” to the log­i­cal (?) out­come, C. That is, A and B are evi­dence which “prove” C. In real life, C is what the politi­cian, the voter, the priest, or who­ever … wants to hear. The gen­eral idea is that when you have a proof, C, then other peo­ple will believe you. There­fore, if you are smart you will care­fully choose A and B (not K, M or Z) to prove your point. If you are cheeky, you might even call the evi­dence “sci­en­tific”. That is because the adjec­tive “sci­en­tific” has spe­cial reli­gious power in this age. Actu­ally, sci­en­tific method (which is under­stood by about 2% of any pop­u­la­tion) starts with the strange idea that the truth of C is unknown before A and B are put together as an exper­i­ment. Even more strangely, sci­en­tific method requires that the A and B premises (or “vari­ables” as they are called in an exper­i­ment) are not cho­sen to “prove” C. Rather, any out­come C is only as good as the orig­i­nal wis­dom of choos­ing the vari­ables, A and B, instead of K, M or Z. At any later time, K, M or Z might be shown to be bet­ter choices, and the orig­i­nal out­come, C, might be trashed. Well, that kind of sci­ence is for geeks. There is no dan­ger, ever, that politi­cians, vot­ers, the cap­tains of indus­try, drug com­pa­nies, priests and door-to-door sales­men will have their more con­ve­nient idea of “evi­dence” share a book­shelf with fairies, Santa Clause and UFOs.

 

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